Market Overview
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto industry’s market capitalization fell by 2.2%, reaching $2.61 trillion, with a low of $2.57 trillion—matching the levels seen on September 16. The sector is currently undergoing a critical test of buyer demand. There is a possibility of a sell-off resulting from a reassessment of industry risks. However, it is worth considering the experience from late 2022, when even the much larger FTX collapse did not prevent the market from stabilizing within just a few days.
On Friday, the price of Bitcoin fell below $76,500, hitting a one-and-a-half-month low due to the largest Binance hack to date, totaling $6.3 billion. Although the leading cryptocurrency rebounded to $78K thanks to reassuring statements, negative external factors—including falling stock prices of tech giants and metals—are holding back growth. Technical analysis also points to sellers having the upper hand, as selling pressure intensified after a failed attempt to test the 50-day moving average for BTC. The nearest support level is $75K, where a rebound was observed in the middle of last month. However, a pullback to $75.3K is possible, as the 200-day moving average is located in that area.
The sentiment index fell by 21 points, dropping to 30. Such a rapid shift into the “fear” zone raises the question of whether the fall surge in optimism was a trap for buyers. We believe this is merely a coincidence unrelated to the market cycle. The fact that the market recovered quickly demonstrates its inherent resilience. Therefore, we forecast that the moderately negative trend will end in the near future, and prices will hold above key levels: $73.3K for BTC (200-day moving average) and $2.48T for total market capitalization.
Background
According to Arkham, attackers stole approximately $6.3 billion from Binance, including USDT, BTC, ETH, USDC, TRX, Solana, and other assets. Exchange representatives reported that they managed to freeze approximately $3 billion of the stolen funds. Currently, asset withdrawals from Binance, as well as trading on Binance Alpha, have been temporarily suspended.
Preliminary investigation results suggest the incident may have been caused by the compromise of a DevOps engineer’s laptop. This allowed the hackers to gain access to a service container and carry out unauthorized transactions.
The investment firm Bitwise has revised its Bitcoin price forecast, expecting it to reach $1.6 million by 2036. According to the new model, the average annual growth rate will be 34.3%. Analysts attribute BTC’s potential appreciation to an influx of institutional capital.
Strategy shareholders have almost unanimously supported the decision to switch to daily dividend payments on the preferred securities STRC, STRF, STRK, and STRD. The company explained that this move is driven by how the issuance and value of shares affect the volume of Bitcoin purchases.
Thirty-three major organizations have banned the tokenization of their shares via the OKX-ICE platform, developed by the OKX exchange in collaboration with Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), which owns the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
The Supreme Court of Thailand ruled that Bitcoin is property that can be the subject of theft. This decision was made in a robbery case in which criminals forced the victim to transfer $50K worth of cryptocurrency to them.