On Tuesday, the cryptocurrency was unable to hold above $82,000. As of 11:46 a.m. Moscow time, the price stood at $81,541, marking a 1.57% decline over the past 24 hours. Throughout the day, the price fluctuated between $81,209 and $83,100. According to Crypto.news, several factors are influencing the situation: weak interest in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S., uncertainty regarding the Fed’s policy due to unexpected inflation, and active selling in the derivatives market.
Bitcoin has been in a correction phase since early October. While the closing price on October 4 was $86,511, by October 8 it had fallen to $81,742, losing about 5.5%. Over the past two weeks, the asset has been stuck in a range between $79,900 and $84,400, failing to hold above $82,000. For example, on Monday, the price even rose to $83,129 but ultimately closed at $81,945. Ethereum also fell by 1.91%, trading at $2,388.87. Even a slight 0.22% decline in the dollar index did not help Bitcoin recover.
What exactly is dragging BTC down:
Institutional demand. About $228.6 million was withdrawn from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs over the week. This is less than last week’s outflow (nearly $681 million), but there are no signs of new inflows yet.
Derivatives. The main pressure is coming from players in the perpetual futures market, while ETF trading volumes are below average. In the options market, demand for downside protection (put options) is rising, indicating that traders expect prices to fall. Additionally, on-chain activity has declined: transaction volumes and fees have dropped by approximately 10%.
Macroeconomics. U.S. inflation in September stood at 3.7% year-over-year, exceeding the forecast of 3.6%. As a result, hopes for a Fed policy easing have been shaken. At the same time, high yields on government bonds make them more attractive than cryptocurrency. The next Fed meeting will take place on October 27–28. On Monday, Bitcoin briefly surged above 82,000 amid falling oil prices, but that momentum quickly faded.
Demand in the spot market is also disappointing: over the week, the volume delta worsened from -67 million to -83.6 million dollars. On the other hand, sellers are beginning to calm down somewhat. The percentage of those in profit fell from 70.1% to 68.2%, and the pace of profit-taking has slowed. There is some good news, too: large holders (1,000 to 10,000 BTC) have shifted their strategy from selling to accumulating over the past two months, and the USDT balance on Binance has risen from $790 million to $1.76 billion.
Comparison with the Stock Market
On Monday, U.S. stocks rose: the Nasdaq index climbed 1.11% after a tough week, and chipmakers began to rebound. Bitcoin ignored this trend and closed with a slight loss of 0.23%. QCP experts believe that investors are currently moving out of the semiconductor sector into safe-haven assets, but there has not yet been a real inflow of institutional capital into crypto.
In the long term, the picture looks different. JPMorgan Asset Management has included Bitcoin in its return forecasts for the first time: they expect an annual return of about 10% over a 10–15-year horizon. By comparison: according to forecasts, shares of large U.S. companies are expected to yield 7.5%, real estate 8.2%, and gold 5.5%. But the risks are enormous: Bitcoin’s volatility stands at 55% annually, while stocks have a volatility of about 18% and gold 17.2%. Due to this volatility, the bank has not yet included Bitcoin in its core asset allocation models.
Forecasts and What to Watch for Going Forward
Technical analysis is sending mixed signals. On the daily chart, the price is near the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud, the Chaikin Oscillator is in negative territory, and the RSI shows a neutral reading of 48. On the four-hour chart, the downward momentum appears to be weakening, but the indicators are still in negative territory.
Most likely, the price will move within a sideways channel between $79,600 and $83,500. For an uptrend to begin, the price must hold above $81,900–$82,000 and then break through the $82,587 and $83,457 levels. For a full-fledged return to an uptrend, the price will need to rise above $84,000. If, however, prices fall below $81,100 and $80,000, the next targets will be $77,500–$78,000, and if there is strong selling pressure, a decline to $76,000 is possible.
Key risks include the Fed meeting on October 27–28, earnings reports from major companies, and new macroeconomic data from the U.S. (oil inventories and unemployment figures). We should also expect options expiration, after which the current lull could give way to sharp price swings.