Cryptocurrencies have entered a phase of natural correction following a period of rapid growth. Total market capitalization has fallen by 3.7% from last week’s peak and has now stabilized at $2.86 trillion. That said, it is still 2% higher than a week ago.
Even despite this local dip, digital assets are holding up much more firmly than gold or bonds. It is now quite logical to expect a technical test of the demand zone in the $2.75 trillion–$2.80 trillion range. The only thing that could really upset the bulls in the medium term is if the price decisively breaks below this level. That would mean we’ve reached a local peak in the cycle.
Bitcoin at a Crossroads: Is the Overheating Subsiding, or Is This a Reversal?
The leading cryptocurrency has returned to $83,000, testing the lower boundary of the weekly range. Most likely, we’ll see a retest of the $82,000 level, which previously served as a key resistance level in May and September.
Here are the main scenarios:
Cooling off: The current sell-off looks entirely natural. It allows indicators to cool down and gives speculators a chance to lock in profits.
Bearish signal: If the price settles below $80,000, this will be a warning sign. The asset may get stuck in a sideways trend for a long time.
Bullish scenario: If the $82K–$83K range holds, new momentum could easily push the price above $90,000.
Sentiment: Crypto investors are ignoring the panic in the stock market
. The Fear and Greed Index is holding steady at 74 points. This is nearly the zone of extreme greed.
Interestingly, crypto investors are feeling great, while an atmosphere of fear has reigned in traditional markets for three weeks now.
Institutional investors are buying everything: ETFs and major market
players. Fundamental indicators still point to growth:
Huge appetite from funds: According to SoSoValue, $2.39 billion flowed into spot Bitcoin ETFs over the past week, while Ethereum ETFs received over $689.9 million.
“Smart money” activity: Santiment analysts note that large wallets (holding 100 to 1,000 BTC) are behaving very aggressively. Since mid-summer, their combined balance has grown by 113,950 BTC, reaching 5.24 million coins.
Exchange Shortage: Only 3.49% of the total Ethereum supply remains on centralized exchanges. Reserves are falling as people transfer coins to staking and DeFi.
Mining costs: JPMorgan estimates that mining a single Bitcoin costs an average of $85,000. If the price falls below that, inefficient miners may begin selling off assets en masse just to cover their costs.
Regulatory developments: The SEC has updated its rules, clarifying that token buybacks or network development do not make a coin a security. Additionally, some staking instruments may now be considered digital commodities.
What’s Happening with Altcoins
While Bitcoin is cooling off, the situation with altcoins is mixed:
Rising: The Graph (GRT) jumped 18.1%, Immutable (IMX) gained 9.7%, and Hedera (HBAR) rose 3.5%.
Declining (profit-taking): Uniswap (UNI) came under pressure, falling 9.7%, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) dropped 9.6%, and Dash (DASH) fell 6.9%.