The total market capitalization has remained flat at $2.86 trillion for three days. Interestingly, cryptocurrency has shown almost no reaction to the strengthening dollar or high government bond yields. It seems traders are in no hurry to jump on the bandwagon at current prices. Everyone is waiting for either a favorable correction or a clear signal that the bottom has already been reached. But don’t be fooled into thinking the market is stagnant: while the giants stand still, liquidity is actively flowing from one sector to another.
Where the Money Is Flowing: DeFi and L1
Right now, we’re seeing a clear disconnect between the heavyweights and the rest of the market.
The leaders are stagnating. Bitcoin, Ethereum, BNB, XRP, and Solana have fallen by less than 1% over the past 24 hours. These coins are too closely tied to traditional finance, where investors have now adopted a wait-and-see approach.
Profit-taking. Hedera (-12.1%), Algorand (-7.0%), and IOTA (-6.5%) saw the sharpest declines. This is to be expected: speculators have simply started cashing out.
Focus on infrastructure. The freed-up funds flowed into decentralized finance protocols and infrastructure networks. In this regard, Sushiswap (+5.1%), Near Protocol (+5.0%), and Aave (+3.8%) came out ahead.
Bitcoin in the $83,000–$84,000 range: gathering strength
Over the past 24 hours, BTC has traded within a narrow range, and the amplitude of fluctuations has noticeably decreased. This looks like it’s building up momentum.
Key point: This zone previously served as a major resistance level that hindered growth back in May and September. But now it’s acting as support. According to technical analysis, the battle between buyers and sellers will soon end, and in the coming weeks, we will most likely see the price rise.
What the numbers say: “whales” have profits totaling 14 billion
On-chain metrics suggest the market may be getting a little overheated.
The gap between ETFs and derivatives. Glassnode notes an interesting phenomenon: last week, inflows into spot ETFs pushed Bitcoin higher, but at the same time, there were sell-offs in the derivatives market. Speculative capital rose to 18.8%, and the percentage of Bitcoin holdings in the black jumped from 69.3% to 74.0%.
Risk of a Correction. CryptoQuant warns: large players are holding over $14 billion in unrealized profits, even as trading volumes are falling. If the “whales” decide to close their positions simultaneously, we could be in for an unpleasant correction.
A hurdle ahead. Analyst PelinayPA believes that a significant hurdle awaits us in the $84,000–$87,000 range. Large asset holders are clearly unwilling to sell above $87,300, creating strong resistance.
Other news: taxes and Bitget issues
Tax scrutiny. The IRS has begun monitoring crypto ETFs more closely to close loopholes for tax evasion. The good news is that spot Bitcoin ETFs, including BlackRock’s fund, were not affected by this crackdown.
Alarm bells at Bitget. Over the past 24 hours, more than $463 million has flowed out of the Bitget exchange. The massive outflow began immediately after withdrawals were resumed; they had previously been frozen due to a hack of hot wallets and the theft of nearly $387 million.