After a rather turbulent week, the price went up. According to The Crypto Times, this was driven by short liquidations and a small inflow of funds into U.S. spot ETFs on October 9. But it’s too early to celebrate: over the past week, Bitcoin has still fallen by about 3.3%. So this rise looks more like a temporary rebound within a weak weekly trend than a full-fledged market reversal.
Short squeeze. In just one day, $46.7 million worth of positions were forcibly closed, and nearly $39.6 million of that came from short positions. When the price creeps upward, those who bet on a decline are forced to cover their positions, which only fuels the rally even further. Futures trading on major exchanges doubled, but the skew toward long positions poses a risk: if the market reverses, the crowd of buyers could trigger an even sharper decline.
ETFs. The situation with ETFs is mixed. On October 7, about $487.1 million was withdrawn from U.S. spot ETFs; on October 8, another $244.1 million left; and only on October 9 did about $21.1 million flow in. A single day of inflows does nothing to offset the $731 million loss, so the sell-off is unlikely to be over.
The Fed and the Macroeconomy. The minutes from the September meeting made it clear that many members favor another rate hike before the end of the year. The dollar is currently at an 18-month high, and Brent crude is trading above $103 due to tensions in the Middle East. At the same time, oil prices are also falling following Donald Trump’s remarks about a possible energy truce between Russia and Ukraine and an agreement on Russian diesel fuel. Zelenskyy said he is awaiting details. All of this is affecting risk appetite, although there is no direct link to Bitcoin’s surge on Monday. Ilya Kalchev of Nexo believes that the most important thing is to monitor signals from the Fed, bond yields, and money flows in ETFs.
What to expect next. Important dates are coming up: On October 14 at 3:30 p.m. Moscow time, we’ll see U.S. inflation data; on October 15, PPI and retail sales data will be released; Bitcoin and Ether options expire on October 16, and the Fed meets on October 27–28. If inflation turns out to be high, the market will fear higher interest rates; if it’s low, it will provide some relief.
Charts. Everyone is currently watching the $84,000 level. The $87,000 range acts as resistance, and if the price drops to $80,000, the current rally will be wiped out. These aren’t forecasts, just guidelines. Next week’s ETF and inflation data will show whether the market will accept this rebound.
What will happen to the price? We asked the AI analyst WarrenAI 2.0 to assess the levels and scenarios for the near future.
Bitcoin Levels and 3 Possible Scenarios
As of October 12 at 10:30 a.m. Moscow time, Bitcoin is trading at around $84,141 (+1.31% for the day). Over the past week, it has fallen by 1.86%; over the past month, it has risen by 8.95%; and over the past three months, it has surged by 31.9%.
Levels
Resistance: $85,000–$86,000, where the price has already been tested, and $87,000–$87,300 (early October high).
Support: $83,000–$84,000, where the moving averages intersect (SMA 5 around 83,070, EMA 5, 10, and 20 in the 83,400–83,800 range), then $80,000–$81,000 (the low on October 9—$80,347) and the $72,000–$76,000 zone, where the price stalled in September.
The 10- and 20-day moving averages are around $84,150 and are currently signaling a sell. This is a very fine line between an uptrend and a pullback.
What the indicators show
Daily chart. The trend appears to be bullish: ADX is at 32.4, with +DI above −DI. RSI stands at 55.9 (neutral-positive), and the price is above the major moving averages. However, the MACD is moving downward relative to the signal line, and the stochastic RSI is falling: momentum is fading.
Weekly chart. Here, most signals are buy signals; the ADX is 26, but the Stochastic RSI (94.5) and Williams %R (−12.6) indicate that the market is overbought. The average daily price range is about $1,950.
Conclusion: On the daily chart, the trend is upward, but momentum is weakening; on the weekly chart, the market is heavily overbought. Most likely, we can expect a sideways movement or a pullback rather than a strong breakout.
3 Scenarios for the Week
Base scenario: a sideways movement in the $83,000–$86,000 range. The price will remain stuck between the moving averages at $84,000 and resistance at $86,000. Low volatility and a weak MACD confirm this, and the $87,000 level has repeatedly hindered further gains.
Bullish: We break through $87,300. We need to consolidate above $87,000–$87,300. Weekly overbought conditions could get in the way, but if it works out, the target will be $90,000.
Bearish: We fall below $83,000. If the price breaks through the moving averages and support at the 83,000–84,000 level, we’ll drop to 80,000–81,000, and then to the 72,000–76,000 zone.
As long as the price stays above the 200-day moving average, the long-term outlook looks promising. But since we’re trading right near the moving averages, the situation could change very quickly. This data is current as of 10:30 a.m. Moscow Time on October 12, and since the cryptocurrency market never sleeps, the figures are constantly changing.