As of now, October 9, Bitcoin is trading at $83,187. This is slightly better than it was at the start of the day, but looking at the week as a whole, the asset has lost about 1.57%. The lowest price over the past 24 hours was around $80,347. As for the Nasdaq Composite, after the market closed on October 8, the index settled at 27,193.34, down 1.25%. Over the week, the index remained virtually unchanged, and it is now only about 2% away from its annual high.
The Relationship Between Bitcoin and the Stock Market
It would be a mistake to assume that Bitcoin and the stock market always move in lockstep. In late August, we saw the correlation with the Nasdaq 100 weaken significantly, falling from 60% to 33%. At the same time, interest in cryptocurrency as a safe-haven asset grew, and its correlation with gold jumped above 50%. However, September brought us back to reality: the assets began moving in sync again, reacting to the same news about the Fed, oil prices, and bond yields.
This is particularly evident when stocks in the artificial intelligence sector are in turmoil. In June, the decline of tech giants dragged Bitcoin down with them, although during periods of growth, the cryptocurrency often lagged slightly behind. A similar situation is unfolding now. On October 8, amid reports from OpenAI, shares of tech leaders fell: Nvidia dropped nearly 3%, while Oracle plummeted by 5.48%. This hit the Nasdaq, and on Friday morning, Bitcoin broke through the $80,347 level. So it’s important to understand: a rise in the Nasdaq by no means guarantees an automatic surge in Bitcoin.
What the Charts Show
Looking at the daily chart, there is now a clear sell signal. It appears a correction is on the horizon. Indicators such as the MACD and moving averages confirm the pullback, while the RSI remains at a neutral level of 52.3. At the same time, the stochastic RSI suggests that the asset is already in oversold territory.
The picture is different on the weekly chart: buy signals predominate there. Most moving averages are below the current price, which looks positive. Yes, the stochastic indicator points to overbought conditions, but looking at the big picture, the current pullback looks more like a temporary pause within a strong uptrend (the price has risen 31.5% over three months) than the start of a prolonged decline. The advice is simple: use the weekly chart to gauge the direction and the daily chart to find entry points.
Levels to Watch
Support: Key support levels right now are the $80,347 low and the $80,000–$81,000 range. If the situation worsens, expect a return to the September range of $72,000–$76,000.
Resistance: The nearest resistance levels are around $84,000. If we break above this level, the next target is the $84,000–$85,000 zone, followed by the early October high of around $87,000. A key reference point will be the weekly moving average at nearly $89,800.
Two Scenarios Through the End of October
Optimistic: If the Nasdaq returns to its highs and the oil and bond markets calm down, Bitcoin could very well rise above $85,000, especially if new money flows into ETFs.
Pessimistic: If the sell-off in the artificial intelligence sector continues, Bitcoin could drop to $80,000–$81,000, and in the worst-case scenario, to the $72,000–$76,000 range. And remember: cryptocurrencies often react to stock market declines much more sharply and painfully than to their gains.
Key Risks
Right now, it’s important to closely monitor U.S. inflation (data will be released on October 14) and the Fed’s decision (October 27–28). Also, don’t forget about the 10-year Treasury yield, which is holding steady at 5.3%, and the situation with oil. And, of course, remember that correlations between markets are fickle and can change at any moment.