What's Happening in the Market
Over the past 24 hours, the crypto market’s total market cap has fallen by 1.4%, dropping to $2.86 trillion. Prices fluctuated the most before the opening of the Asian trading sessions, when liquidity was low. Although buyers tried to buy back assets at weekly lows, the downward trend still affected nearly all coins. Among the forty most liquid assets, not a single one is currently rising. Losses range from a modest -0.2% for Avalanche and -0.7% for BNB to a rather significant -8.4% for Polkadot and Filecoin.
Bitcoin has pulled back to the $84K mark. On Tuesday, buyers tried to bring the price back within the triangle, but to no avail. Since the price failed to hold above $87K, a wave of selling began, and early in the day, the price fell to $83.6K. Currently, the most critical level is $83K, where local lows are located. If this level is breached, the price could easily drop to $80K. This scenario is quite realistic in the coming days, as U.S. indices have begun to trade more cautiously after reaching all-time highs, and sell-offs have resumed in the debt markets due to the strengthening dollar.
Context and Forecasts
Although Bitcoin set a record on October 6, 2025, rising above $126K, its price is now 33% below that peak. It’s worth noting that in past cycles, the asset’s value typically fell by 75–82% one year after reaching its peak. Experts believe that the current correction is moderate and is linked to ETF-related factors and the creation of government reserves. They also note that the arrival of large institutional players has made the pace of growth in the bull market less steep.
At the same time, a large amount of Bitcoin is being withdrawn from the Binance exchange, and the withdrawal rate has reached a three-year high. Over the course of the week, 23,100 BTC were withdrawn, a record since June 2023. According to CryptoQuant, this resembles an accumulation phase, which could support the price in the future.
Analyst Quinten François also pointed out an interesting detail: over the past three cycles, buying Bitcoin on the day of U.S. midterm elections has never resulted in a loss. On average, such investments yielded a return of about 54% one year later. The next election will take place on November 3, 2026.
Experts at Bitget Research believe that Bitcoin could return to $90K within a few weeks. So far, this has been hindered by high oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields, which have exceeded 5%. In their baseline forecast through the end of 2026, they predict a price range of $100K–$110K. Ethereum, however, appears weaker, as it is currently of little interest to major players.
It’s also interesting that, according to a CoinShares study, 91% of respondents in Germany, the UK, and the U.S. plan to increase their crypto portfolios by the end of the year. Most people already own digital assets: in Sweden, this figure stands at 54% of the population, while in the U.S., Switzerland, the UK, and Germany, it reaches 70%.
Finally, according to CryptoRank, trading volume in the prediction markets soared to an incredible $188 billion in the third quarter. This represents a 70% increase for the quarter and is 21 times higher than last year. The main driver was the Kalshi platform, whose quarterly trading volume more than doubled.