On October 6, 2025, Bitcoin set a historic record, reaching $126,080 (according to Coinbase, the price even hit $126,210.50). However, just one year later, the situation has changed. According to 24/7 Wall St on Yahoo Finance, as of October 5, the BTC price had fallen to $86,189. This is 32% below its all-time high and 30% lower than it was a year ago. To return to its previous highs, the asset would need to rise by approximately 46%. Bitcoin’s current market capitalization stands at about $1.73 trillion.
Historically, it has typically taken about two years to set new records. For example, after the peak in December 2013, the next high was not reached until February 2017 (38 months later). After December 2017, a new record was set in December 2020 (36 months), and after November 2021, in March 2024 (28 months).
Experts doubt that we will see a new record by the end of 2027. By December 2027, only 26 months will have passed since the last peak, which is less than the fastest recovery cycle in history. That said, the current decline doesn’t look as dire as it did before. In previous cycles following the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks, Bitcoin lost about 85%, 84%, and 77% of its value, respectively. For major players who entered the market via spot ETFs in early 2024, this is their first serious correction since the peak.
A year ago, things looked completely different. On October 3, 2025, prices hovered around $124,000, and giants such as Citigroup, JPMorgan, and Standard Chartered forecast prices ranging from $133,000 to $200,000 by the end of the year. But everything changed on October 10: following the shock of the introduction of new tariffs, the market saw its largest liquidations, totaling over $19 billion. As a result, October 2025 ended in the red, breaking a streak of seven consecutive profitable Octobers.
The situation now looks somewhat more positive. At the end of June, Bitcoin fell to $58,000, but in the third quarter, it jumped by more than 40%. This is the best result since 2017 and the first profitable quarter after three losing periods. Even September, traditionally considered a weak month, ended on a positive note. In the week leading up to September 25, U.S. spot ETFs saw $2.39 billion in inflows, marking a record high since October 2025. The nearest resistance levels are currently $87,350 and $87,570, while support remains in the $83,000–$84,000 and $80,000–$81,000 ranges.
Forecasts remain cautiously optimistic. Standard Chartered confirmed that it expects the price to reach $100,000 by the end of 2026, and Jeffrey Kendrick of the same bank considers the current decline an excellent buying opportunity. However, it’s worth noting that the bank has already lowered its expectations twice: from $300,000 to $150,000, and then to $100,000. As Yahoo Finance notes, the bank failed to meet its annual forecasts for 2023, 2024, and 2025.
October is often called “Uptober,” and the statistics back this up. Since 2013, Bitcoin has risen by an average of 18.7% in October. Of those 13 months, 10 ended in positive territory. The first three days of October are usually weak, but this year, Bitcoin actually gained 1.4% during that period. However, experts warn that seasonality offers no guarantees. The market is under heavy pressure from macroeconomic factors, such as Treasury yields (currently around 5.3%), and sudden shocks could easily derail any “Uptober.”
The main risk to the October rally is the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds. We asked WarrenAI 2.0, our AI analyst, what it thinks about this and what might hinder growth.
As of October 6, 2025, Bitcoin is trading around $85,472 (down 0.83% for the day). Over the week, it has risen 2.11%; over the month, 6.25%; and over the past three months, it has surged by a significant 33.43%. However, year-to-date, the price has fallen by 2.55%. The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds stands at 5.286%, approaching its annual high.
The Relationship Between Bitcoin and Interest Rates
First, there’s the opportunity cost. When bond yields exceed 5%, holding an asset that doesn’t pay coupons (such as Bitcoin) becomes less attractive. Investors begin to shift capital to assets that offer guaranteed income.
Second, the role of the asset itself is changing. According to Bitwise, Bitcoin’s correlation with gold has risen to +0.50, while its correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index has fallen to 0.30. This means that Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a safe-haven asset. Rising yields driven by concerns over U.S. government debt reinforce this trend, although WarrenAI believes that interest rate dynamics are still playing a more significant role.
Third, cash flows. Inflows into spot ETFs are supporting the price, but October will show whether this institutional demand can outweigh the impact of high interest rates.
What could hinder growth?
The main enemy is inflation, which is preventing yields from falling. The industrial price index jumped to 77.9 in September, which is very close to the levels seen at the start of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran. In addition, the price of Brent crude oil is hovering around $100.
In September, the Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00%. The probability of another hike in October is currently estimated at just 16%, but if inflation does not begin to slow, the risk remains. If yields continue to rise and the dollar continues to strengthen, then after a 33% increase over three months, the market may simply shift to profit-taking. WarrenAI considers this the main risk.
Chart Analysis
The daily chart still shows a bullish trend: the price is above the moving averages, and the ADX (43.7) indicates the strength of the trend. However, the MACD indicator shows that momentum has begun to weaken, and the weekly stochastic is signaling overbought conditions. Support is at $83,840 and $79,940.
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin has been trading within the $83,800–$87,100 range since early October. The price is currently somewhere in the middle of this range. The nearest resistance levels are $86,661 and $87,000, while support levels are $84,944 and $83,800.
Conclusion
According to optimists, the inflow of funds into ETFs and Bitcoin’s status as a hedge against sovereign debt risks will drive the price higher. Pessimists, however, point to inflation and high interest rates. Keep an eye on these key dates: the Fed minutes on October 7, inflation data on October 14, and the Fed meeting itself on October 27–28. Volatility could be very high on these days.