The American brokerage firm U.S. Tiger Securities has officially announced the start of a new bull cycle for the leading cryptocurrency. Analysts have reaffirmed their “buy” recommendation and set a target price of $250,000 per coin. They expect to reach this target within the current cycle—that is, by 2029 or even sooner.
What Points to a Trend Reversal
As noted by the company’s analyst Bo Pei, the market is already showing classic signs of a phase shift. The chart has begun to form a steady series of rising lows and highs, and prices have returned above cost levels for investors. As a result, the firm has decided to withdraw its July forecast regarding the late stage of the bear market.
At the same time, we are seeing a strong return of capital to exchange-traded funds. The inflow of liquidity through spot ETFs confirms that interest from large institutional players is growing along with the asset price.
The market has withstood the test of geopolitics and interest rates
Cryptocurrency has demonstrated remarkable resilience to external negative factors:
First, regulatory and macroeconomic risks were neutralized. The suspension of the Clarity Act and the Fed’s latest 25-basis-point rate hike failed to derail the upward momentum, as the market had already priced these events into its quotes.
Second, the pullback was minimal. During a week filled with political news, Bitcoin fell by only 5.9%, and the intraday low following the Fed meeting was just 1% below the level seen before the press conference.
Third, a rapid rebound occurred. A wave of buying allowed the asset not only to surpass its May high of $82,814 but also to rise by 49.1% compared to its July low.
On-chain metrics and demand from institutional investors
In September, prices returned to a safe zone in terms of cost basis. Despite a short-term drop below the market average ($76,000–$77,000), the price confidently held the break-even level for short-term holders, after which it surged higher.
Investors provided fundamental support for the price movement through ETFs:
- From August 17 to September 21, net capital inflows into funds totaled $4.20 billion. This offset nearly half of the $8.42 billion in outflows that had persisted for eight consecutive weeks from May through July.
- The inflow of $937.3 million in a single day (September 21) set an all-time record for daily purchases since the cycle’s historic peak in October 2025.
Macroeconomics and Comparison with Gold
According to Pei, the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric does not negate global challenges. The persistent U.S. budget deficit and rising costs of servicing the national debt will sooner or later force the government to curb bond yields. Under such conditions, Bitcoin becomes an even more valuable scarce asset.
The $250,000 target price is based on on-chain data and the ratio of Bitcoin’s market capitalization to that of the gold market:
With a maximum supply of 21 million coins, the network’s total market capitalization will be $5.25 trillion. This would be equivalent to 16.9% of the estimated gold market capitalization, which falls within the analysts’ baseline model (15–25%).
If the price of gold rises by 20–30%, Bitcoin’s share relative to gold will be 13–14%. This means that a rise in the price of gold would allow Bitcoin to reach $250,000 without requiring an extreme inflow of capital from other sectors.
U.S. Tiger Securities emphasizes that the path to a new peak could be even smoother than in previous periods. For this forecast to materialize, the average purchase price of coins on participants’ balance sheets must rise to $147,000–$167,000. This implies an average annual growth rate of 24–29% over three years. For comparison: following the recovery signal in April 2023, this rate was approximately 39%.